ABSA Cumulus

  • Africa Update

A decline in production of maize is expected in Namibia during the 2015/16 production season as a result of poor seasonal rainfall due to drought induced conditions. The declines follow a bumper year during 2014/15 production season, which saw increases in maize output.  Read more …

  • Cumulus 201606_13

Africa Commodity Overview November 2015

Namibia Most parts of the country experienced dry conditions, which has led to increases in cattle numbers at auctions and abattoirs as producers had to cull their unproductive animals due to the lack of good pastures. Producers would otherwise have to be faced with the financial implications of providing forage for all their livestock.  Read more …

  • Cumulus 20150929

The past week has seen the build-up of the climate system towards more rain that may occur by the end of September into early October. Little precipitation occurred since the 23rd except for some showers over especially the southern parts of the winter rainfall region due to the movement of a cold front by Sunday. Temperatures over the interior were above normal for the most part while below normal over the winter rainfall region.  Read more …

  • Cumulus 20150915

After widespread rain during early September, the past week has been somewhat drier. Upper-air systems were less strongly defined over the subcontinent while a deep cut-off low was present far to the west, causing some showery weather over parts of the winter rainfall region from time to time. Isolated thundershowers also occurred over part of the interior, but strong organization of thunderstorms didn’t occur due to the lack of upper-air support. A highpressure system ridged strongly around the country behind a cold front during the weekend. At first, cold air resulted in a sharp temperature drop over the southern parts. Further ridging resulted in cloudy and cool conditions with widespread rain along the southern and eastern coastal areas as well as adjacent interior, especially in KwaZuluNatal.  Read more …

  • Africa Commodity Overview

In 2013, Namibia was hit by a devastating drought that shrunk the national livestock herd size considerably. As farmers started rebuilding their herds again, 2015 presented farmers with yet another drought. The effect of this drought saw an increased number of livestock marketed which put pressure on prices in the first quarter of 2015, especially in the cattle industry.  Read more …

  • Cumulus 20150811

Temperatures have recovered during the past week with mild late-winter conditions occurring over the country. A cold front by Wednesday last week resulted in welcome rain over the winter rainfall region, particularly the western parts. Some rain (light falls) also occurred along parts of the southern to eastern coastal belt due to ridging by the Atlantic Ocean Anticyclone around the country. High-pressure systems over the subtropics and mid-latitudes intensified during the week, reflected in a strong increase in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to large positive values. Northerlies to northwester lies dominate across South Africa in relation to these patterns, resulting in mostly pleasant conditions while the wind and higher temperatures may increase the risk of runaway wild fires, especially in the north-east.  Read more

  • Cumulus 20150601

It’s been another mild and dry week over the interior. The Southern Annular Mode was in a negative phase, associated broadly with a northward displacement of the westerlies. Wet conditions therefore occurred over the winter rainfall region, associated with cold fronts that tracked further north than earlier, bringing relief after a much delayed start to the winter rainy season.
Above-normal rain has returned to the winter rainfall region after dry conditions in May. Very low rainfall totals over the western parts of the winter rainfall region were concerning, especially due to the weak end to the previous winter rainfall season, resulting in dam levels in the region becoming critically low. The rain that has occurred since the 5th (around 20 mm over the Swartland and around 70 mm in the mountainous areas), together with more to be expected over the region, will certainly have an alleviating effect for agriculture and the water situation in general. Indeed, as more frontal systems are projected to move across the Western Cape during the week, rainfall totals in the mountainous areas may exceed 100 mm, while most of the western wheat production areas may receive in excess of 40 mm of rain, with lower falls over the Ruens towards the southeast.  Read more …

  • Cumulus 201605

Above-normal rain continued during May over most of the summer rainfall region. Precipitation during the month was mostly associated with the development of deep cut-off low-pressure systems over the western interior, resulting in unstable conditions with widespread rain and thundershowers over the interior.  Read more …

  • Cumulus 20160330  

Two widespread rainfall events (7 to 11 and 15 to 19 March) have resulted in large areas in the northeast receiving above-normal rainfall in March. Heavy rain was mostly confined to the eastern and northern parts of the summer rainfall region. Following the wet conditions in the northeast, the main activity shifted towards the central and western parts. A significant cold front reached the Cape by the 25th, producing cold weather and widespread rain over the winter rainfall area (with snow reported from the Matroosberg). The associated upper-air low resulted in widespread showers over the central interior, including much of the western Free State and Northern Cape interior. The upper-air low flattened and surface westerlies advected cold air from the west across the interior, resulting in dry and cool conditions over much of the country since the 27 th. Isolated areas over the eastern high-lying interior experienced the first frost for the winter.  Read more …

  • Cumulus 20160202   

The rainfall during the month was very well distributed over both the eastern and western maize production regions. Drier conditions however generally set in by the end of the month, continuing into early February. The period has seen a slow build-up over the Southern Hemisphere of high-pressure systems over the subtropics and mid-latitudes, as seen by the increase in Southern Annular Mode (SAM), reaching very high values recently. Temperatures also increased, albeit not to the extent of the heatwave conditions experienced during other build-up periods earlier this summer. The SAM is expected to decrease sharply over the next few days.  Read more …

  • Barclays Commodity Report 6 January 2016
  • Cumulus 20150414

Widespread rain occurred over the eastern parts of the Eastern Cape during the monitoring period,specifically by the 5th and 6th, when a cut-off low developed over the south-eastern parts. Light rain and showers also occurred over the north-eastern parts of the country during the same period – associated with another low pressure area to the north. Read more …

  • Cumulus 20150310

 Circulation patterns during the past week have been such that maximum temperatures over the summer rainfall region remained near normal while above-normal temperatures were recorded over the south western parts of the country, related especially to hot conditions by the 3rd. Coupled with strong easterlies to south easterlies, conditions over the south western parts were favourable for the development and spread of wild fires. Read more …

  • Cumulus 20150303

 Hot and dry conditions over the central parts of the country during early February were replaced by slightly cooler weather and isolated to scattered thunder showers since the 16th. Thunder showers over the western maize production region were relatively more widespread from the 16th to 18th and again from the 23rd to 26th. The eastern maize production region received relatively more widespread thunder showers by the 16th, 24th and especially by the end of the month. Read more …

  • Cumulus 20141111

While last week ended with relatively dry conditions countrywide, conditions have improved markedly for precipitation to occur since the weekend, as foreseen a week ago with the prospects for the development of the upper air through. The trough towards the south west facilitates the flow of tropical moisture southwards over the central and eastern parts while a ridging high towards the south further increases atmospheric moisture over the eastern parts. Cloudy conditions currently dominating much of the eastern and central parts should continue until Wednesday/Thursday.  Read more …

  • Cumulus 20141104

Summary

The main area of precipitation during the past week was, unlike during much of October, located towards the central, south eastern and western parts of South Africa. A significant cloud band developed over the central parts in association with a semi-stationary trough to the west. The cloud band was an indication that the atmospheric link with the tropics became well established during the week. This link is a prerequisite for widespread rain over much of the interior. Widespread rain also occurred over parts of the winter rainfall area yesterday.

  • Cumulus 20141104

Summary

The main area of precipitation during the past week was, unlike during much of October, located towards the central, southeaster and western parts of South Africa. A significant cloud band developed over the central parts in association with a semi-stationary trough to the west. The cloud band was an indication that the atmospheric link with the tropics became well established during the week. This link is a prerequisite for widespread rain over much of the interior. Widespread rain also occurred over parts of the winter rainfall area yesterday.  Read more …

  • Cumulus 20141021 (2)

Summary

The development of a deep upper air low, moving across the country and intensifying towards the east over the Indian Ocean dominated conditions during the previous week. Associated with the system, cold air invaded the southern parts, strong winds occurred over the central parts and along the eastern coastal areas and hail was reported over the north eastern and eastern parts. With the low deepening towards the east, dry conditions have dominated since the 18th.  Read more …

  • Cumulus 201403b

Overview of conditions during previous week over South Africa:

Rainfall

Much of the central and eastern parts of the country received in excess of 50 mm during the past week, with cumulative rainfall exceeding 100 mm over a large proportion of the area. Several stations in a band from western Limpopo towards Mpumalanga and northern KwaZulu-Natal recorded 24-hour rainfall totals exceeding 50 mm or even 100 mm. Extensive flooding related to the persistent rainfall over the north eastern provinces occurred and can be compared to the disastrous situations during 1996 and 2000 in some parts.  High cumulative rainfall amounts were the result of conditions remaining favourable for widespread precipitation throughout most of the period.  These included an extensive anticyclone to the east over the Indian Ocean, tropical disturbances over Botswana as well as a semi-permanent  upper air trough in the westerlies over the south western parts of the country. While heavy rain occurred over many areas, very few storms became severe as is typical of wet late summers.  Read